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Let’s see how fast can the research analysts and fund managers react. RM22.5b property sale is nothing to snigger at. It is anticipated that there will be 180 property developers participating.

Of course, we are not going to clear the bulk of it. We are talking of over 30,000 properties. Each buyer will be another “potential buyer” off the market for normal property launches.

We can expect hefty discounts and even at bargain prices. There are 180 developers, how will you stand out. There are only so many buyers. One buyer for another property is buyer lost to the developers. Developers have been asked to offer at least a 10% discount. I can foresee even some will sell at a slight loss just so to improve their capital management and cash flow.


There will be repercussions and implications. How will banks and finance companies view the lending part? Will they be expected to “loosen their lending guidelines”? What about Bank Negara, which has been making it tough (necessarily) to get housing loans? These are pertinent questions which will need to be addressed openly prior to the March event.

– Any loosening of lending guidelines by the banks will result in a downgrade for all banks, owing to the deteriorating loan book. Hence we need more clarity for the government.

– A more realistic impact will be on property developers. The event will suck potential property buyers from the normal market. Watch the resale market prices, go ask your real estate agents, prices will come down by 10-20% minimum just based on the news, in particular for motivated sellers.

– Smaller property developers might as well close shop for a while unless you are very niche and has enormous value add to your products.

– Bigger property developers with townships will see a much longer period for the township to be developed. Not good for them, but this is a necessary evil owing to over-building and mismatching of needs by developers in the first place.

I hate it when people give tips or stocks’ potential based on “insiders’ information”. How is that a fair situation? What about the rest of investors who do diligent research and still get knocked about by these “insider informants”. Can you still be a good investor based on publicly available information? We can only try.

THE SELLDOWN

Prestariang has had a very dramatic last 6 months. It could easily fill a business book by Michael Lewis… and that’s just based on public information. If Michael Lewis gets to interview a few of the deemed players, it should be a great best seller.

SKIN was the project which was awarded on 18 July 2017, and the stock was around RM2.00 around that time. Now it’s about 16% of that level. The project is a 15-year concession and will consist of three years of build and deployment phase and 12 years of maintenance and technical operation phase. 

Payment to Prestariang was to only commence upon the full commissioning of the system after three years with an average annual payment of RM294.7 million from year four to year 15 during the maintenance and technical operation phase.

Prestariang’s other substantial shareholders are Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) (KWAP) with an 8.6% stake and Brahmal Vasudevan — who is the founder and CEO of private equity firm Creador — with a 6.2% stake. Over the past couple of months KWAP has been rapidly reducing its stake, and from the filings, it looks like Brahmal has fully exited his position over the last two weeks.




















THE FUNDAMENTALS

So the base scenario is to strip out SKIN to see what’s left for Prestariang. Assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6%, CIMB estimates SKIN’s value to be around RM750 million and since Prestariang owns 70% of it, the concession is worth RM525 million or RM1.08 per share to the company. PublicInvest Research has a similar valuation of the project. In a Sept 5 note, it says Prestariang’s stake in SKIN is worth RM521.3 million or RM1.08 per share, assuming a WACC of 7.48% and internal rate of return of 17%.

Hence even if you took the RM2.00 share price, much more than the “valued” RM1.08 has been eradicated from the share price. The excess losses may be attributed to previous “over-exuberance” and/or loss of favor with the ruling government. Even so, the “loss in share price is already deemed as probably excessive”. A local research house has estimated that Prestariang’s book value could drop to 26 sen per share from 32 sen if earnings from the SKIN project are reversed. 

Prestariang’s financial results, with or without the first few inclusions of SKIN earnings, were decent. Not spectacular but decent. It is in no danger of falling into PN17 or anything like a big hole.

Apart from SKIN, Prestariang’s other dealings with the government include its contract to supply Microsoft software licences, products and services. In January this year, its subsidiary, Prestariang Systems Sdn Bhd, received an extension of its contract to supply the licences to MoF under the Master Licensing Agreement 3.0.The extension is for three years, from Feb 1 this year to Jan 31, 2021, at an estimated value of RM222.6 million.


Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/12/12/prestariang-seeks-compensation-over-skin-termination/#j3maqxqwwdDrxGTQ.99

WHO WERE THE BUYERS

We have talked about the many substantial sellers over the last 4 months. Were all the shares bought by small time investors who do not know of the bigger picture? Well, there were two big buyers. It is up to you to research who they are.

One has 8.29% and the other ended up with 16%.

https://lunlaaangun.wordpress.com/2012/08/14/the-curse-7-lifetimes-legend-of-langkawi-malaysia/
The curse of Langkawi will be lifted after the 7th generation*.

Sultan of Pahang is the 16th Agong.
1 + 6 = 7*
Birth date – 30 July 1959 (3+0+7+1+9+5+9=34 *3+4=7*

Mahathir sworn in as 7th Prime Minister

Mahathir date of birth 10th July 1925 (1+0+7+1+9+2+5=25) *2+5= 7*

Independence Day 31st August 1957 (3+1+8+1+9+5+7=34 *3+4=7*

Finale – 7th June 2019 = 25 (2+5=7) when the curse of Mahsuri is finally lifted and Malaysia will be reborn.

Suffice to say, when the big boys rumble, its never good for the small ones.  The table below showed the best place to have put your money in 2018 was in CASH.

It was so gratifying and exhilarating to discover a musical artiste, who somehow bypassed me all throughout 70s and 80s. Listening to Tom Waits patiently is so addictive and calming. The brilliant composer and cutting poet should be heard by more people.

There are about 20 albums he has issued and his repertoire was quite varied with blues, jazz, folk influences. The best place to start has to be his Anthology of Tom Waits, possibly one of my top 3 favourite albums of all time now, suddenly.



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I have always wanted to write a short book on HOW SMALL IS YOUR GOD. Any religion, any religion… that has a God by definition, needs to appreciate the kind of God they worship. We look around, plenty of religious people get offended at the slightest agitation.

How small is your God … who would take offense at Human ‘Wrongdoings’ or non-believers’ ‘wrongdoings or insensitivities’ … Why do you get angry on behalf of your God… how small is your God that he/she cannot see through human frailties, lies, deceits, misbehavior, insolence, immaturity, rebellious streaks, impudence, egos, arrogance, … HOW SMALL IS YOUR GOD???

I am certain your God will be more than capable of fighting his/her own battles. If you wish to get angry, be angry, just voice it, move on, and God will take care of the rest. Do get to know your own God before you even try to get angry on his/her behalf.


https://news.artnet.com/art-world/violent-protests-mcjesus-israel-1438402?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=news&utm_content=everyday-news&fbclid=IwAR2Sfv3gE68ODzPGEOkaXmCNwIRXJCCTLcqiu1E_Dc0bWy7JiassYmMJ5as

The 8th Prime Minister

The Deputy Prime Minister

THE VICTIM WHO TRUSTED AZMIN ALI TOO MUCH.

These amazing photos of a young boy in Terengganu playing with buffaloes were taken by Malaysian photographer Mohd Nazri Sulaiman aka Dallah Deen. The image below, titled “Sharing Emotion”, even managed to win the grand prize in IOA’s Street/People category! He was also deemed Photographer of The Year by the Asian Geographic magazine. 

The kid in the photos was 14 years old Mohd Syukur Khamis (Thank God Its Thursday??!!). The buffaloes were reared by his father and he seemed to have a special connection with them.


These images totally captured the kampung spirit of running wild with nature and its beings. Very Malaysian indeed.




These images evoke feelings of days gone by, where time sometimes stood still and at the same time rush past us like fleeting memories trying to catch the light of yesteryear. 

People and businesses who wish to contact the photographer please do so:

Call 0109222680

m.me/syukorkhamis

Rule of law important for nation’s recovery process – Dr Mahathir

There is a saying that “Power lies with the person who knows the weakness of others.”